Thucydides’ History of the Peloponnesian War recounted the history and the causes behind the war between Athens and Sparta.

Sparts was the regional hegemon of Greece while Athens was a rising nation, growing economically and militarily and eventually surpassed Sparta in terms of wealth, influence and power. This led to Sparta feeling concerned of the growth and influence of Athen’s and how it could challenge Spartan dominance. According to Thucydides, Spartan fear of Athens’ growing power was the fundamental cause of the war. A conflict born purely out of assumptions that could have been avoided had both parties just talked it out.

The term Thucydides Trap is used to describe the tendency towards war when an emerging power threatens of rivals to displace an existing great power as a regional or international hegemon.

This is the trap that America and China are currently finding themselves in.

But the trap is a total self projection on the hegemon’s part. It is rooted in their own insecurity and bad faith. Because the hegemon itself came to power using warfare and illegitimate means, thus it believe that the rising power will do the same even if the rising power in question has no plans of doing that. This leads the hegemon to attack first, and eventually, losing to the rising power.

China will win. But at what cost?